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  • The lack of a bid in bonds is grim
    by Adam Button on يونيو 13, 2022 at 1:54 م

    All the focus is on stocks and crypto today but what's happening in bonds is arguably worse. US 10-year yields are up 12 basis points today to 3.27%. That's just a shade above 3.20% in 2s, endangering a fresh inversion. But the bigger story is the broad bond market selloff. Higher yields have been the trend for months but that we're seeing them rise so much on a day when stocks are down another 2.5% is worrisome in the worst kind of way. Today's rise above 3.26% breaks the 2019 high in yield and the monthly chart shows we're at the highest yields since 2011. That means there's no safe haven out there. Historically a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds would cushion one another but they're both puking today.That shows this is a true deleveraging as the market cowers at the idea of the Fed hiking its target rate to 4% in the months ahead.Here are the thoughts from the BMO rates team today:"We’re certainly sympathetic to the market’s hawkish interpretations of balance of risks and it goes without saying that when Powell appears on Wednesday the FOMC will  endeavor to deliver reassurance investors that combatting inflation remains the Committee’s top priority.   The obvious question is how the Fed can effectively communicate this without materially accelerating the selloff currently underway in risk assets. Alas, this challenge has faced Powell on a number of occasions during this cycle and, as a theme, the Chair has erred on the side of over-delivering hawkishly. Our take is that the most likely hawkish outcome is the Fed will put a 75 bp hike on the table for July; making such a move conditional on the ongoing acceleration of consumer prices. Meeting such a requirement given the current macroeconomic landscape doesn’t appear to be particularly difficult; so this would go a reasonable distance toward calming investors’ renewed inflationary angst. There is an argument to be made for 75 bp on Wednesday; although the biggest counterpoint is that the market would simply assume every remaining meeting in 2022 would see a similar 75 bp hike. The obvious result would be a sharp selloff in the front-end, striking curve inversion, and, of course, a true bear market for US equities.   While taking some of the upside out of risk assets will serve to achieve the Fed’s objective of containing consumer prices via offsetting the wealth effect; it most certainly increases the chances of changing a bumpy landing into a crash landing. Suffice it to say, this risk is very much top-of-mind this morning." This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • Fortune certainly not favoring the brave today
    by Adam Button on يونيو 13, 2022 at 1:16 م

    In hindsight, there's always an event or two that signifies that an asset has hit max popularity.The 25% drop in bitcoin in the past week is worth a retrospective today, in what's shaping up to be a Black Monday for the space. Bitcoin is at the lows at the moment at $23,642.Seven months ago it was flying high and that's when we got this cringey, high-budget ad from Matt Damon. It was everywhere for awhile.Three weeks after that, the naming rights to Los Angeles' Staples Centre -- home to the Lakers, Kings and Clippers -- sold its naming rights to Crypto.com. There's an old adage that it's time to sell a company's stock when it buys  the naming rights to a stadium and that was certainly the case here. Bitcoin is down 62% since and the declines in the broader crypto space are worse.What's next:Good fortune in investing sometimes favors making big bets and picking bottoms but not often. Fortune more-often favors prudence, patience and measured moves. No one nails the bottom and rides it to the top. Warren Buffett has become the world's greatest investor by compounding at average rates of 20% for 55 years. Few hedge funds can even match that record for a decade.Liquidity is drying up throughout markets right now and investors are looking for a safe haven. With even the safest bonds getting beaten up, that means cash.Ultimately, there will be great deals -- including in crypto -- but the trade won't be to pick a time and go 'all in'. It will be to find some safety, get a clear head and start picking up the pieces when the time is right. No one knows exactly when that will be but I'm certain it's not today.Matt Damon to everyone he got into crypto last year: pic.twitter.com/k17bA02GUZ— High Yield Harry (@HighyieldHarry) June 13, 2022 This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • Gold isn't offering a safe harbour today
    by Adam Button on يونيو 13, 2022 at 1:00 م

    There's almost nowhere to hide from the market rout today. On Friday, gold offered a safe habour as it climbed more than $30 following the CPI report but today it's given all that back. It's down $27 to $1843, in a 1.5% drop. When things are moderately bad gold can hold its own but when it gets really bad, everything is sold. That's what we're seeing today with stocks, bonds and commodities all down. The FX market isn't too bad but the yen is the leader in a classic flight to safety. The gold chart is still showing some higher highs so if markets can stabilize there's reason for optimism. On the fundamental side, there is a growing case for bullishness. The thinking is that if things get bad enough in equities and/or the real economy, the Fed will be forced to pause even with inflation high. In an extremely tough scenario, the Fed may even be forced to restart QE.That result would be a recipe for dollar debasement and extremely bullish for gold. We're still quite a few steps away but the more disorderly that financial markets get, the higher the odds rise. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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